Property Talk

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Sotonginvestor
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Property Talk

Post by Sotonginvestor » Tue Nov 27, 2007 9:43 am

Few interesting changes in the mkt...

- Some developers known to have pushed back some of the new launches. Likely due to the less exciting sentiment as the credit woes in US and the poor stock mkt ard the region. I think their diplomatic reason is that showflats are not ready yet. Hehehe.

- Sub-sales are slower now because sellers' selling prices and buyers bidding prices gap are not narrowing (possibly widening?).

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Post by Namdlo » Wed Nov 28, 2007 2:19 pm

Hee... just when you think the prop mkt has peaked... we have a hero in the form of Dr Francis Yeoh of YTL paying top (over the top maybe?) money - $2,525 psfppr for some apartments at Orchard Boulevard.

Was told the breakeven px for this new development is estimated to be abt $3,600 psf. Wah lao... how much is he going to sell it for? If just $4k, not worth it perhaps? .... closer to 5k psf? If sell at 5k, I kowtow to Dr Yeoh man! For his guts and vision!

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Post by Namdlo » Thu Dec 06, 2007 10:01 am

Just read a CSFB rpt... It says that with "over 70,000 units in the supply pipeline, and peak completions of over 21,000 units in 2010 that equal two to three years. take-up, supply may overwhelm demand if population growth comes in below expectations."

Also noted in the report that the population growth is driven mainly by foreigners (surely, we dun have that many millionaires in SGP willing to pay 4-5k psf). So the question posed is, how is the foreigners growth going to be like in SGP. CSFB studies that foreigners growth "lags GDP growth by approximately a year in a positive linear relationship." Cheem man.


End of it... CSFB maintain "MARKET WEIGHT" on the sector.

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Post by Namdlo » Mon Jan 07, 2008 9:20 pm

Taken From http://www.salary.sg



How often do you hear of people getting bonuses of 6 years?
http://www.salary.sg/2008/crazy-70-mont ... ty-sector/

Well, a bumper year for Singapore’s economy coupled with a record-breaking property boom gives us this story of unbelievable bonuses.

As reported in the Chinese daily (Zaobao) today, people in the property sector are getting fat bonuses of at least 4 months, with the average in the range of 6 to 14 months.

This is thanks to the high number of property transactions, en bloc sales, and record prices for good class bungalows, condominiums, apartments and even HDB flats.

And some are hitting the jackpot with bonuses of 70 months!

The luckiest fellows come from a 14-men property company called Credo. Inclusive of commissions and performance bonus, each of them is getting 50 to 70 months of bonus.

Granted, their basic pay may be lower than that of other sectors, but 70 months is still a big deal. Even if we assume that a junior employee is getting $2k a month in basic salary, he will be receiving a total of $164,000 for the year 2007!

2007 was indeed a bumper year for the property sector. But before you decide to switch into property, note that from 2001 to 2005, the local real estate was underperforming and some people in this sector were getting no bonus then. It’s not rosy all the time.

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Post by Namdlo » Wed Jan 16, 2008 6:07 am

China: Is the property bubble peaking..?
--------------------------------

House prices plunge in Beijing
By Yang Jian 2008-1-11
Shanghai Daily.

HOUSE prices in Beijing dropped 19.67 percent in December from the previous month, China's Central TV reported.

The average residency price dropped to 12,180 yuan (US$1,676) per square meter from 15,162 yuan. Prices in Dongcheng, Xicheng, Chongwen and Xuanwu, the districts with the highest house prices, slumped to 18,401 yuan per square meter from 23,467 yuan, the CCTV report said yesterday, quoting SouFun Holdings Limited.

Many local property companies had to sell homes with free decorations and appliances due to the slump in sales, according to a Beijing property company, which sold only 10 percent of its new houses in Zhaoyang District since October.

Transactions in Beijing's secondhand house market shrunk 8.2 percent in December, Beijing's official online real estate trading Website said, which described the slump as abnormal.

House prices in Shenzhen and Guangzhou began to drop in October. Transactions shrank more than half in October, the biggest drop in three years. The average price in Guangzhou plunged 20 percent in December.

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Post by Namdlo » Wed Jan 16, 2008 6:35 am

Sign of the times? BT has a report ...... one sentence says it all !
Record 14,826 private home sales in 2007, but only 305 in its last month

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Post by Gallen » Wed Jan 16, 2008 2:52 pm

Namdlo wrote:Sign of the times? BT has a report ...... one sentence says it all !
Record 14,826 private home sales in 2007, but only 305 in its last month
Next headline:

Record number of private home sales................... to cover contra losses, top up margin :evil:

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Post by Namdlo » Thu Jan 17, 2008 9:46 am

Another sign.

Office props ===> Peaked?

Hitachi Tower in Raffles Pl ...... sold at S$2,900psf yesterday.

You compare this with Chevron House (ex Caltex Hse) ..... sold at S$2,780psf in Aug 2007

==========

You would say... solid, Hitachi Tower sold higher price... mkt ok.

Consider this:

- Hitachi Tower better frontage facing the Collyer Quay seaview
- Hitachi has a 999-year lease. Chevron House? 81-year remaining lease.


Go figure....

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Post by Gallen » Thu Jan 17, 2008 9:56 am

also Aljunied temp office site drew only 1 bid? :roll:

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Post by Namdlo » Thu Jan 17, 2008 2:51 pm

Another sign China property market is peaking or has peaked.

========

China property firm's woes spark fierce protests
" 80 percent drop in its Shanghai business "
" close 1,000 of its 1,800 outlets "
http://www.guardian.co.uk/feedarticle?id=7229866

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Post by Morten » Fri May 02, 2008 11:18 am

Trying to figure out where is the next hot spot...

Whats next? Look at the Circle Line.
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Post by Morten » Fri May 02, 2008 11:53 am

Masterplan out anytime soon...

Jurong, Paya Lebar designated as new business hubs
By Daryl Loo, Channel NewsAsia | Posted: 28 June 2007 1649 hrs

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/ ... 96/1/.html

SINGAPORE: Jurong and Paya Lebar have been designated as new business hubs under the upcoming Master Plan 2008 review.

Giving a preview of the plans in a Channel NewsAsia interview, National Development Minister Mah Bow Tan said the move would provide space for Singapore's continued growth as a global business centre and would offer an alternative to the overcrowded Central Business District (CBD) area.

The Master Plan guides Singapore's medium-term land use and is reviewed every five years.

To grow Jurong and Paya Lebar into new hubs for businesses, the government plans to release sites for new offices, shops, homes and entertainment outlets in these areas.

According to the minister, the lower costs will be a key pull factor.

He said: "I think the best incentive is that it will offer cheaper office space – cheaper than the CBD. It will offer proximity to workers who live in some of the nearby residences. And of course, it's going to be a very nice leisure and recreational area as well. In Jurong, for example, we can redevelop the areas around the Jurong Lake, which can provide very nice retail and F&B outlets on the waterfront."

The specific locations of the sites have yet to be determined, but they will be centred around the existing MRT stations.

For Jurong, these MRT stations would likely be the Lakeside, Boon Lay or Jurong East stations, while the Paya Lebar station is the likely candidate in the east.

Mr Mah added that he does not see the need for land acquisition by the government as there are plenty of empty land sites in these areas.

The new hubs are seen as part of the long-term answer to the current office space crunch.

Mr Mah said: "It will take us quite a number of years to build up Jurong and Paya Lebar. I remember we took at least ten years to fully develop Tampines as a regional centre. So I think, depending on the reaction of the market, it may take just as long. This is really something to help us sustain our growth in the longer term."

Other more immediate options to ease the space crunch in CBD include sale of new sites and short-term transitional office sites.

As for speculation about drastic increases in plot ratios for land around the island to cope with an anticipated rise in population, the minister said there is no need for such a move at this point.

He explained that the figure of 6.5 million is actually a very long-term guide, spanning up to 50 years.

Mr Mah said: "If that is the case, then there's really no urgent need for us to drastically change all our plot ratios or up the intensity of all the various parcels of land that we have.

"We've been doing this gradually over many years. There has been a review of various plot ratios in every Master Plan and we've gradually and steadily reviewed the intensity and use of each of these plots. It's not something that we need to do across the board at this point in time, based on the reviews that we have done."

The Master Plan will also include new details of living options, facilities for leisure and ways to encourage rootedness in Singapore.

The new Master Plan will be put up for public feedback by the middle of next year.

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Post by Morten » Mon May 05, 2008 9:38 am

CSFB on props... logical. Point 1 to 4 especially.

We are downgrading the Singapore developers to
UNDERWEIGHT from Marketweight, as we believe the market
has not fully factored in headwinds ahead.

â—

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Re: Property Talk

Post by Morten » Thu May 22, 2008 6:33 am

Maybe this is another reason why higher end projects will find fewer takers... nvm the IR and the great things happening in SGP.. over supply and over pricing perhaps will "overwhelm" whatever positives?

============

http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/sub/sui ... 06,00.html?

S'pore luxury homes ninth most expensive globally
Market supported by jet-setting high net-worth individuals: report
By ARTHUR SIM

LUXURY homes in Singapore are the second most expensive in Asia and the ninth most expensive in the world.

High living: At US$2,423 per sq ft, S'pore luxury home prices are topped only by HK, where they cost US$4,507 psf. Even Tokyo is cheaper at US$2,334 psf
According to a report by Citi and Knight Frank, luxury home prices here are now US$2,423 per sq ft.

The only place in Asia where they are more expensive is Hong Kong, where they cost US$4,507 psf. Even Tokyo is cheaper than Singapore, coming in third most expensive at US$2,334.

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Re: Property Talk

Post by Morten » Fri May 23, 2008 7:31 pm

Masterplan is finally out. http://www.ura.gov.sg/DMP2008/home.htm


Right in the middle of it all at Paya Lebar MRT is SingPost Building, which sits beside PYLebar Station... it is worth more than half Singpost's mkt cap.

Work, live and play at Paya Lebar Central and Kallang Riverside
http://news.asiaone.com/News/AsiaOne%2B ... 66645.html

Extract: Paya Lebar Central
The two new growth areas are part of the plan to increase the number of commercial hubs or nodes outside the CDB, said Mr Mah.

Paya Lebar Central will be developed around Paya Lebar MRT station and will have more than 500,000 sq m of commercial floor space within the 12ha zone.

Mr Mah said: 'Paya Lebar Central will be an attractive location for businesses that do not need to be located within the city centre but still want to be close by.'

He added that the area is well known for its local Malay heritage and the URA will encourage new developments to enhance the local character.

There are also plans to incorporate Geylang River into future developments and new public spaces by realigning a stretch of the river to run along new buildings along Tanjong Katong Road.

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Re: Property Talk

Post by Morten » Wed May 28, 2008 5:18 am

What will trigger the sharp fall? Credit Suisse attributed it to the following factors:-

(1) Withdrawal of liquidity that drove the market up during the past two years (en bloc, deferred payment scheme, foreign capital),

(2) Dumping by marginal speculators, who cannot hold or pay for their purchases

(3) Potential price cuts by small developers with high gearing

(4) Rising vacancies with rising supply, and

(5) Deterioration of the local employment situation.

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Re: Property Talk

Post by Morten » Mon Jun 23, 2008 8:52 am

Clear signal the prop mkt still v much in the downswing.

http://www.straitstimes.com/Latest%2BNe ... 49536.html

Govt offers fewer confirmed sale sites in uncertain mkt

THE Government is cutting back on the number of development sites being releasing for outright sale over the next six months.
Its move follows poor sales of the 37 sites that have been available since the start of the this year.

Only five sites on the confirmed list have been sold while four other plots on this list have yet to be sold or launched.

None of the 26 sites on the reserve list have been triggered for tender.

These sites go on sale only if a developer makes a minimum bid.


Full story on GLS: http://app.sprinter.gov.sg/data/pr/20080619989.pdf

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Re: Property Talk

Post by Morten » Tue Jul 15, 2008 11:09 am

If you ever want to buy a new property from a new development now... (quite a few launches recently)... read this... extracted from CSFB rpt today on their showflat visit to OLA in Katong.



"The asking price is S$1,150/sq ft, although the eager agent
hinted that in light of the weak market, the developer may accept
counter offers above S$1,000/sq ft. Expected TOP: Dec. 2010."


Ie... if u must buy any... pls try to bargain at least 10% down... developers are hard up... may accept... but bargain behind close doors la... and bargain only if u are serious abt buying.. hehehe... cheque book on hand visible to the developer helps a lot in bargaining. And in all nego... be very prepared to WALK AWAY!

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Re: Property Talk

Post by Morten » Fri Jul 18, 2008 8:36 am

Farrer Court (biggets condo in Singapore)... watch the breakeven... nearest comparable is Rochester developed by UE whose average is $1,200psf.. and if I am not wrong, that is not even fully sold. Hear UE's cost is just $600+psf... so if they start to drop prices, Farrer Court even more chum.

- 99yLH,
- land cost S$1.34bn).
- seven 36-storey apartment blocks designed by top architect Zaha Hadid,
- 1,500-unit project will be built at a total cost of S$3 bn, or a breakeven cost of S$1,350-1,450/sq ft.
- project will be ready for launch in 1H09.

Now the impt qn... who is in it?

Morganite Pte. Ltd. (CapitaLand (35%), HPL (22.5%), Morgan Stanley (22.5%), Wachovia development(20%))

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Re: Property Talk

Post by Gallen » Fri Aug 08, 2008 10:33 am

Aug. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Australian commercial real estate prices may slump 10 percent within a year as the economy cools and the global credit crunch dries up financing, said CB Richard Ellis Inc., the world's largest commercial real-estate broker.

Property values probably fell 5 percent in the first six months of 2008, CB Richard Ellis Executive Director Kevin Stanley said today in Sydney. Sales won't revive until prices fall further, he said.

Australian property trusts have dropped on the nation's stock exchange, driving the ASX/S&P 200 Real Estate Trust Index down 34 percent this year. Office vacancies are rising from record lows and property sales are slumping as concerns increase that the nation's 17-year economic boom may be slowing after the Reserve Bank of Australia increased interest rates to a 12-year high in March and fuel prices rose to a record.

``The odds are there will be some sort of tempering and pull back in valuations and rents,'' said Winston Sammut, who manages the equivalent of $49 million in equities as managing director of Maxim Asset Management Ltd. in Sydney.

Sales of commercial property in Sydney, Australia's biggest city, dropped 42 percent. The region usually accounts for about A$1.7 billion ($1.5 billion) a year in transactions, or about a fifth of national deals, Stanley said.

National office vacancies rose in the six months ended June 30 for the first time in 4 1/2 years, the Property Council of Australia said today.

Economy Cooling

``This is the counter-cyclical period many investors have been waiting a long time for,'' Stanley said in a speech, a copy of which was e-mailed to Bloomberg by CB Richard Ellis. ``The word `contagion' is slowly creeping into our lexicon.''

The economy expanded at the slowest quarterly pace in almost two years in the three months through March 31. Consumer confidence last month slumped to a 16-year low and businesses were the most pessimistic since 2001. Retail sales fell 1 percent in June.

Unoccupied space increased to 4.2 percent as of July, from 3.9 percent in January, the Property Council said today in a report. Canberra had the biggest increase among capital cities, with its vacancy rate rising to 6.1 percent from 2.2 percent. Perth vacancies shrank to 0.3 percent from 0.5 percent as the capital of Western Australia benefited from a commodities-led economic boom.

``Demand for office space in Australian markets has been running very hot for several years, and a wind-back in demand has been anticipated for some time,'' Property Council Chief Executive Officer Peter Verwer said in the statement. ``Supply to Australian office markets has eased in line with demand.''

German Fund Demand

Australian property owners who cut prices ``in line with global trends'' are most likely to attract German investors and possibly sovereign wealth funds, said Neil Brookes, CBRE director of international investment.

German funds are looking to take advantage of increased yields on long leases and will probably buy A$1 billion of Australian commercial real estate this year, he said. He predicted returns to investors in top-rated Sydney office buildings will rise to 9 percent in the next 12 months, from 7.5 percent.

``There is obvious interest from over there and my understanding is that their appetite is still reasonable,'' Maxim's Sammut said.

Supply Eases

Developers held back on introducing new office space in the first half, creating a potential supply surge that might undermine prices and rents. Some 393,488 square meters of space was added to Australian office markets in the six months to July, a third less than in the second half of 2007, according to the Property Council. The market may get a further 670,201 square meters of offices in the second half of this year, more than double the 15-year average.

The average CBD vacancy rate nationwide is still the second-lowest since the 1980s, the council said. Central Sydney's vacancy rate is unlikely to rise above 5 percent in the coming two years, CBRE's Stanley said.

Mirvac Group, an Australian real estate investment trust, stopped redemptions for three mortgage funds holding more than A$243 million this month, as investors seek to pull out of property assets amid the global credit crisis.

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Re: Property Talk

Post by Annboy » Fri Aug 29, 2008 10:40 am

Going by analysts concerted efforts in d/g the prop sector... we may see more downside. Better not bottom fish yet.

GS is the latest to d/g.

Key note:

Going into 2009, we see investors concerned over

1) slowing pace of residential sales and
risk of falling prices in Singapore, China and Vietnam;

2) risks of cap rate expansion and
falling spot rents in Singapore office and retail;

3) weak earnings, with risk of write-downs
of development projects and revaluation losses; and

4) execution on capital recycling, be it
from selling assets to sponsored REITs or third parties.

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Re: Property Talk

Post by Annboy » Tue Sep 02, 2008 7:38 am

Read today's BT. Now there is a scheme similar to deferred payment. Called interest absorption scheme (IAS) and the zero instalment scheme. Works much like deferred payment in that the buyer makes a 20 % downpayment - and then pay nothing until TOP.

Only difference is...

(1) buyers need to take loan upon downpayment.... ie be credit worthy (previously if u have 20%can buy liao... doesnt matter if u can finance the balance 80% or not)
(2) during this period before TOP, it is the developer that pays interest to the bank.

Full story: http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/sub/new ... 57,00.html?

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Re: Property Talk

Post by Annboy » Tue Sep 02, 2008 8:03 am

Latest transaction in Suntec.

Quote this from Suntec REIT announcement : completion of the acquisition of 3,498.3 square feet of strata-titled office space in Suntec Tower One on 1 September 2008, amounting to an aggregate consideration of S$7.7 million.

ie... S$2,200 psf
I think the peak was abot S$2,500 psf or thereabouts... of course location within Suntec is also important.

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Re: Property Talk

Post by Chickenrice » Sat Mar 06, 2010 1:08 pm

Cavenagh props
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Re: Property Talk

Post by Chickenrice » Sat Mar 06, 2010 1:10 pm

Roxy Square
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Re: Property Talk

Post by Morten » Thu Mar 18, 2010 9:23 am

To check if your flat is eligible to sell to any race and PRs ... this is the website: http://services2.hdb.gov.sg/webapp/BB29ETHN/BB29STREET

Enquiry on Buyers' eligibility under the Ethnic Integration Policy and SPR Quota

This e-Service allows you to check the buyer's eligibility to buy into a particular block under the Ethnic Integration Policy (EIP).

For Singapore Permanent Resident (SPR) buyers, this e-Service also allows you to check your eligibility to buy a flat in the block under the SPR Quota.

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Re: Property Talk

Post by Morten » Thu Mar 25, 2010 9:49 am

Voices from the heart... unfortunate and very real!

Yo.. Govt... Mah BT, are you listening?!?!?!
Do those BTO HDB flats... all take 3 - 4 yrs to TOP... and ask couples to have kids early... how to? After booking the BTO flats at say 30 yrs old, wait for TOP is already 34 yrs old liao..... in between dunno what will happen too. This HDB high prices and long waiting time will be KEY issue in the nx election here. (Not to mentioned the high profile losses made in the financial mkts )

=============


TODAY Online 25 March 2010

MY MARRIAGE COULD NEVER TAKE ROOT
---------------------------------
I REFER to "To hatch babies, first you need a nest" (March 24). Mine is an example of a nest that could not be built at all.
I got married in 2007 and, like many other Singaporeans, my husband and I applied for a HDB flat. We were told to wait for two and a half years for the keys. During this time, both of us stayed with our own families as we couldn't afford the monthly rent for a flat of our own.
This awkward arrangement meant our relationship became strained, so I decided to live with my husband and his family. That proved to be an even worse decision; we had arguments every night after we got back home from work. So, I went back to my parents' place to stay.
It was difficult not to be able to come home to the man who was supposed to be my life partner and find the space to connect. As a couple, we suffered a lot. We needed to meet outside just to have time to ourselves.
Ultimately, we were headed for a separation and a divorce. After another year of living apart, my husband and I filed to annul the marriage.
How could couples like us - who couldn't find the time and space for each other after marriage because of the waiting time to get the keys to our place - find the time and space to have kids?

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Re: Property Talk

Post by ichew » Thu Mar 25, 2010 1:42 pm

Morten wrote: we had arguments every night after we got back home from work. ... As a couple, we suffered a lot. ...
How could couples like us - who couldn't find the time and space for each other after marriage because of the waiting time to get the keys to our place - find the time and space to have kids?
i hate to say this but i tink LUCKILY they did not have any kids.
i feel tat a couple shld be able to resolve ALL their problems/ obstacles TOGETHER.
I'd say they failed their first obstacle as a team/ couple together.
Of cos it will not be easy living with parents BUT we have seen so many couples (esp my parents' generation) who did so successfully.
No one said marriage is a bed of roses or tat u do not need to work hard on it.
And wat is a 2-3 yrs wait compared with a lifetime ... nowadays young ppl got no patience :P

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Re: Property Talk

Post by Morten » Thu Jul 29, 2010 2:43 pm

People rushing to snap up 99 yr Serangoon condo at $1.2k psf?

Wow...

Making me "rethink" that the condo near my place at MP Central at $1300- $1400psf FH is a good buy!

The flush of liquidity in SGP is amazing. Hence, we see the liquidity run in SGX now as well.

The bear camp just get washed away by the liquidity flood.
We thought European woes will do us in + economic numbers in many places suggest a double dip.

Both sounds like very old news now.

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Re: Property Talk

Post by Morten » Thu Aug 05, 2010 8:14 pm

This one makes our props look like dirt cheap man!


Mystery surrounds the identity of the person who bought a South Bay villa for a staggering HK$660 million - a Hong Kong record for a house in the primary market. Henderson Land (0012) confirmed yesterday that the mansion at 11 Headland Road sold for HK$50,641 per square foot, the third highest in Southern District.

The record of over HK$61,744 psf was set earlier this year for a group of houses on Peel Rise, The Peak. Handling agency Centaline Properties declined to disclose the identity of the person who bought the Headland Road property. But there is speculation the buyer could be a Vietnamese investor, an electronics factory owner or a Taiwanese billionaire. The Headland Road villa was one of two in South Bay that Henderson released after a site on Mount Nicholson Road was auctioned last week for HK$10.4 billion, or an accommodation value of HK$32,014 psf. Ricacorp Properties assistant sales director Kenneth Chiu Po-kit said the villa fetched such a high price due to its size and sea views. The gross floor area is 13,033 sq ft, and there are two gardens, one 2,766 sq ft and the other 5,810 sq ft. "Its indoor area and the gardens are extremely big, so it is easier to revamp," Chiu said. "It also has its own number and a private road." Henderson said members of its board or their immediate family members were not involved in the transaction.


The Standard.

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